At a meeting on September 11, 1963, President Kennedy asked Defense Secretary Robert McNamara if he thought that Diem’s reign was viable long-term.
President Kennedy: “How much of a difference of opinion is there on Lodge’s general feeling? It seems to me after listening to General Krulak and those fellows from State that they’re probably both right. There hasn’t been a real deterioration yet but it could set in. I think maybe two months from now, with the school children and all the rest that must – I would think he would maybe find that deterioration. So my judgment would be, unless there’s some change there, that we’re probably going to be worse off in 2-4 months. Now does Secretary McNamara, General Taylor feel that or not? "
Robert McNamara: "Mr. President, I don’t believe I can forecast that far ahead. I believe strongly that as of today there has been no substantial weakening of the military effort. I don’t know what the future will hold. I strongly support Dean Rusk’s suggestion that we proceed carefully and slowly here and this is quite contrary to what Ambassador Lodge has recommended. Fact is I read his cable this morning, he recommended that we decide today to get rid of Diem and Nhu, that we start of a course of action that will force that, one way or another, if we try initially to force them out by stopping aid and concurrently we support a coup attempt. I think that Secretary Rusk is proposing that we not make any such decision today, that we not take action that will lead certainly to that kind of a situation. I strongly support this program he’s outlined. I don’t believe we’re ready yet for measures as extreme as the Ambassador recommended because I don’t myself believe we are certainly going to face a weakening of the military effort over the next two months. It think its possible, it may even be probable but I am particularly struck by the point that Secretary Rusk mentioned, that Ambassador Lodge had not been in communication with Diem on any effective basis. "
Unnnamed voice: "He hasn’t been out of Saigon. He hasn’t seen the things that are going on in the rest of the country, particularly the civil war."
John McCone: "We feel very much the same way as Secretary Rusk and Secretary McNamara expressed themselves, that is, that we should move cautiously. I think we have to recognize that Lodge hasn’t been there very long, he’s only had one extended discussion with Diem, I’m sure it was not productive. I think it could be well for him to have further talks and also to…to become acquainted with the country.”