I appreciate more than I can say the opportunity to be here with you tonight. To come from the old Northeast to the roaring Southwest is an impressive experience. For much is different – yet much is the same. You border the mountains and the desert – we border the cold Atlantic. You mine the earth – we mine the sea. You take pride in the growth and vigor of a new state – we take pride in the traditions and security of American's oldest settlement.
Much is different – but much is the same: the industry of our people, their self-reliance, their self-respect, their courage. We share a common kinship and a common destiny; a common concern for the security and progress of our nation and all of its people.
We have much in common politically, as well. Massachusetts and Arizona are both Democratic states, in terms of registration and sentiment. In the past six years, both states have sent a Republican to the Senate and both states gave their electoral votes to the Republican ticket. Neither state, I am confident, will make that mistake again in 1958 or 1960.
I do not wish to pose as an expert on Arizona politics. But I am bold enough to predict a Democratic victory in this state for two reasons: first, because Arizona is famous in Washington for the unusually distinguished Democrats you have sent to represent you. Carl Hayden, the dean of the Senate, is a Senator's Senator. Without doubt he is one of the wisest, ablest, most courageous, most respected men in Washington. Representing you in the House is a man who has achieved for himself within a few short years an unusual position of articulate leadership and influence – Stewart Udall. And all of us who have served in Washington for a number of years recall the ability and statesmanship of your illustrious Governor – and, if he wishes it, we all expect to see Ernest McFarland back in the Senate next year.
There is a second reason why I predict a Democratic victory in Arizona – and that reason I base upon my talks in the past year with Democrats in every part of the country. Whatever may have happened in 1956, whatever coattails the Republicans hope to ride, whatever your Republican neighbors may have been told last week, I can tell you that our Party is strong – that our Party is united – and that our Party is going to win in 1958 and 1960. The scent of victory is in the air – the handwriting is on the wall – this is going to be the greatest Democratic year since 1936. In the Senate, for example, I do not believe that the Democrats can lose a single seat – and I believe our chances are excellent to pick up a dozen or more – including Arizona.
I do not say that victory will be easy. Let us not take victory for granted. Let us not take the voters for granted. We have to offer more than the old slogans and policies of the past. We have to offer more than charges we cannot prove or promises we cannot fulfill. We must prove our capacity for responsible leadership. We must demonstrate enthusiasm for tackling the difficult issues of our times. And we will. For courageous, responsible leadership is the trademark of the Democratic Party.
I was sharply reminded of this Democratic tradition three weeks ago last night. I was in New York to see the opening of a play about Franklin Roosevelt called "Sunrise at Campobello". It is not a play about politics. It is not about the Presidency or the Democratic Party. It is a play about the triumph of one man and his family over disaster – the disaster of physical illness.
But I thought, as I left the theatre very deeply moved, that this play portrays more than this stirring personal triumph. For it also brought to mind all the great qualities of leadership in times of crisis for which FDR was famous – not only the personal crisis of his paralysis, but the crisis of a country in economic chaos, the crisis of a world at war, and all the rest.
We urgently need those qualities in Washington today. For this nation now enters a period of crisis of greater proportions than any we have endured since long before Arizona became a state. We are confronted with a deepening crisis in world affairs – in our relations with our allies, in our prestige with the uncommitted nations, in North Africa, the Middle East, in Germany, Latin America and practically every other part of the world. The Soviets have out-shown us in scientific achievement. They have out-maneuvered us in their economic offensive of trade and aid. They have outstripped us in the race for ultimate weapons and outer space. The Middle East, North Africa, Indonesia, Cyprus, Latin America – every part of the world is in flames or in ferment. The Republicans may cry "Peace, peace," but there is no peace.
Here at home the economic situation is also rapidly reaching the crisis stage. Close to five million workers are unemployed. Millions of others are working only a few days a week. Difficult as it is to believe; the average factory worker in the United States today no longer works a full forty-hour week. In fact, the average work week for December was the lowest for that month since before World War II.
An estimated 25% of our industrial capacity is idle. During the current year, an estimated five million people will have to leave the farm. More than 14 thousand businesses will fail. We may still prevent a complete economic disaster – but only if we can obtain the kind of leadership demonstrated by Franklin Roosevelt. That kind of leadership is sorely lacking in this Administration.
Massachusetts and Arizona cannot stand a serious economic recession. Our state, because of its old industries, will be the first to get hit. Your state, because of your new industries, will be the last to get help.
Our states – all states – need leadership, not studies. We need action, not talk. We need something more in the way of leadership than those who talk blithely of a "breather" in the economy… or those who say everything will get better if we wait until the end of the year … or those who come all the way out to Arizona and say "there is nothing wrong with the economy that a good dose of confidence won't cure."
In this same address, the Republicans of Phoenix were told: "We are betting on prosperity to bring victory for the Republicans" in November. Let me say, my friends, that we in the Democratic Party will accept that bet.
For our part, we are not betting on a depression and we are not running against Herbert Hoover. We are betting on the American people preferring action instead of talk at a time of economic crisis.
Because it will take more than "a good dose of confidence" to reverse the downward trends in employment, production, construction – in new housing, automobiles, freezers, refrigerators and furniture. It will take more than "a good dose of confidence" to restore the automobile industry to something more than 60% of capacity . . . to operate our steel mills at more than 55% of capacity. Do you realize that our manufacturing and mining output dropped 7% last year – at the same time the Soviet Union reported its industrial production rose 10%?
The steel industry, for example, is operating at less than 55% of capacity. At least 125,000 steel workers are unemployed. Two hundred thousand others are working on a part-time basis. We could be turning out an additional 50 million tons of steel ingots a year from the blast furnaces, open hearths and rolling mills that are currently shut down. You need that steel here where your population will double before the century is out. You need that steel for new schools and dams and buildings and bridges. You need that steel – and a prosperous economy – a lot more than you need "a good dose of confidence."
Once this administration has let a recession get underway, it takes more than "a good dose of confidence" to cure it. Consumers, pinched by the all-time high cost of living, are restricting their purchases. As a result, factories are cutting their production and laying off workers. As a result of that, our railroads receive fewer freight car loadings. And as a further result, more than 68,000 railroad workers are now jobless – and employment in the railroads has dropped below one million for the first time since the great depression of 1929.
But the Republican orator in Phoenix reassured Arizona that "this Administration will not stand by and allow a recession to continue or unemployment to rise." He outlined a four-point program which he said would do the job: new defense contracts, which actually represent a decline; new post offices already authorized; new highways already underway; and new housing starts which were previously approved. Not one of these points could be considered a real anti-recession weapon. Not one is going to put money in the pockets of those who need the purchasing power. Not one is going to make enough jobs for the right people in the right places at an early date. That four-point program – if you can call it a program – can be summed up in four words: too little, too late.
Your Republican visitor made no mention of raising unemployment benefits to our millions of jobless workers – even though those men and women seeking work are now getting an average benefit equal to only one third of their previous earnings. He made no mention of helping our areas of substantial labor surplus – even though those areas now include one third of the nation's major industrial centers. He made no mention of extending minimum wage protection – even though 35 million workers now lack that basic floor under our purchasing power. He said nothing about farmers forced from their land, miners out of a job, and businessmen without customers or contracts.
No, he did not mention any of these programs that would put money in the pockets of those who need it most. Instead, he said, the Republicans believe in "spending for things you need" to stimulate the economy. But I ask you, my friends, which do we need most – $2 billion in new post offices – or 200,000 new public school classrooms – 838,000 hospital beds – new reclamation projects for the West – or new homes for the 17 million Americans who, fortune Magazine says "live in dwellings that are beyond rehabilitation – decayed, dirty, rat infested, without decent heat or light or plumbing? Our Republican friend said, "It's time to quit running America down." I say it's time to start building America up.
Perhaps we should not be too harsh on our Republican friends tonight. For this is Washington's Birthday – a day of national reverence and gratitude, a day to remember the founder of our nation and the national interest to which he was devoted. Think back, if you will, to February 22, 1796. For 13 years, the Birthday of President Washington had been honored in the new nation. Bonfires were lit, cannons were fired, flags were displayed and bells were rung in every city in the land. One newspaper called it "America's Political Christmas".
But in 1796 no bells were rung or bonfires lit. The cannons which were to be fired were spiked by angry citizens. Washington, said one newspaper, was "The American Caesar… the stepfather of his country." The House of Representatives for the first time in its history declined to take the customary half hour adjournment to congratulate the President and wish him many happy returns. Benjamin Franklin's grandson declared: "If ever a nation was debauched by a man, the American nation has been debauched by Washington.
The cause for this change in the public's affection was principally President Washington's approval of the Jay Treaty with Great Britain. Popular opinion which favored the French in their war with the British resented the concessions we had made and the grievances the British had failed to meet. But President Washington preferred an unjust treaty to a war which his young and still weak country could not survive. He longed to retire at the close of his second term with the reverence of a united country. But he chose instead to endure popular abuse rather than endanger the existence of those who were attacking him. It may well have been his finest hour.
We urgently need today to remember this example of Washington's courage and devotion. The popular path is not always the best one, even in a democracy. If our leaders in Washington, and their policies at home or abroad, try to please everyone and displease no one – to take both sides or to take no side – then the future of our nation is less secure.
We need throughout the country today the courage and determination of George Washington and Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman – men who were abused and harangued, but whose great principles have stood the test of time. I believe that the Democratic Party is best equipped to provide that kind of leadership.
So long as there is one child without milk, so long as there is one family without a decent home, so long as there are aged persons without pensions, working mothers without fair wages, struggling farmers without income, so long as there are overcrowded schools, inadequate hospitals and families on relief, so long will the need for the Democratic Party continue – and so long will we be called upon to assume the responsibilities of leadership.
I do not pretend to say that the future will always be rosy, even under a Democratic Administration. There will be crises, there will be problems. But only the Democratic Party has the enthusiasm and the determination and the new ideas necessary to meet those problems. We can build the schools and the hospitals and the homes and the dams that our nation needs. We can wage unrelenting war against drought and poverty and illiteracy and illness and economic insecurity. We can build, through strength and justice and realistic leadership, a lasting peace. And we can go forward to a new and better America, never satisfied with things as they are, daring always to try the new, daring nobly and doing greatly. It is in this spirit that we meet here tonight. It is in this spirit that we will sweep the nation in 1958 and 1960.
Source: Papers of John F. Kennedy. Pre-Presidential Papers. Senate Files, Box 899, "Democratic Dinner, Tucson, Arizona, 22 February 1958." John F. Kennedy Presidential Library.